FUTURE PREDICTED DYNAMIC MODEL URBAN GROWTH FOR BAQUBAH CITY

Civil

Abstract

Baqubah city is witnessed during the last decades a fast urban expansion because of the rapid economic growth. Which had its negative effect on the environment of the city through the sprawl of the expansion on the rural areas and the orchards surrounding the city. The objective of the research is to produce dynamic model and land use map of Baqubah city through employing the capabilities of Dinamica EGO software with assisted Arc GIS (Ver.10), remote sensing techniques ERDAS (Ver.13).No previous attempts have been taken to produce this model for study area.
The classified maps are used in the dynamic model to calibration, validation and simulation to get the finial simulation model in 2050 year by ten-sequence step of models. The maps of 2004 and 2010 are used for the transition probability matrix. The simulated map for the year of 2010, when compared with the real map, reached rate of similarity to 81.5 %. The simulation scenario for the year 2050 showed an increase in the medium residential, high residential and road by (40.2%, 104.4%, and 23.9% respectively). As well as a significant decrease the orchard, vegetation, water, open area and mix by (52.2%, 48.4%, 35.6%, 29.7%, and 12.5% respectively).