Forecasting Future Demand in Two of The Busiest Us Airports Using Simplified Models

Raquim N. Zehawi; Ali H. Hameed; Yassir Nashaat A. Kareem

doi:10.24237/djes.2016.09409

Authors

Raquim N. Zehawi Department of Civil Engineering, College of engineering, University of Diyala
Ali H. Hameed Department of Civil Engineering, College of engineering, University of Diyala
Yassir Nashaat A. Kareem Department of Civil Engineering, College of engineering, University of Diyala

Keywords:

Demand forecasting, econometric analysis, airport planning, regression, Simulation

Abstract

In airport planning process, there is always a crucial need for good and reliable air traffic demand estimate. It is equally important for airport authorities and airline carriers, for in the case of under estimated demand, there would be frequent congestions and delays. Conversely; overestimates would lead to unjustified expenditure which may lead to financial problems to all parties. The accurate and reliable models are not highly sophisticated in nature. In this paper, two econometric models were developed to forecast the passenger enplanements in two of the busiest airports in the United States of America. Many national and local socioeconomic variables were analyzed to come up with simple, yet accurate models. It was found that the total aggregate variables including per capita gross domestic production and population, have more influence on demand in the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport than the local variables, while the same factors, but in their regional scale, proofed to be more influencing in the case of John F Kennedy International Airport.

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